The canonical procurement pipeline tracker for DEFONEOS sovereign defence-AI bids. 9 named Tier-1 opportunities × 5-stage gate model × DSP SC2 9-of-9 compliance mapping × Crown Commercial RM6263.4 (G-Cloud 14) × DASA Open Call × NATO DIANA × £38.2M FY26-27 addressable. Every opportunity is SIGIL-anchored with evidence artefacts and a calibrated win-probability.
Every opportunity enters the pipeline at Stage 1 and must clear each gate to advance. A failure at any gate sends the opportunity back to the previous stage with a documented remediation plan. No opportunity bypasses a gate — this is the DEFONEOS procurement discipline.
Win-probability assessed ≥15%. Sovereign-fit confirmed (no AUKUS hard-stop, no kinetic-targeting). Capability match verified against DEFONEOS 30-MCP estate.
Sovereign AI Common Operating Picture (COP) for a Brigade HQ — CesiumJS digital twin + FreeTAKServer C2 + 30 MCP sensor feeds + JSP 936 compliance layer
Addressable (£)
£4,200,000 (24-month pilot → follow-on)
Win probability
22% (pre-SC-clearance; rises to 35% post-SC)
Stage
Stage 3 — Pursue
Blocker
DSP registration (owner-gate)
DSP SC2 mapping
9/9 — Cyber Essentials (filed), ISO 27001 (roadmap), ISO 9001 (in scope), SC clearance (pending), financial standing (2yr accounts), insurance £5M, modern slavery statement, GDPR Art 28 DPA, conflict-of-interest declaration
Opportunity 4: Crown Commercial Service — G-Cloud 14 (RM6263.4)
Buyer
Crown Commercial Service (CCS) — all UK government departments
Framework
G-Cloud 14 (RM6263.4)
Requirement
DEFONEOS listed as a cloud service: sovereign AI compliance automation + MCP federation as managed service. Available to all government buyers via Digital Marketplace.
Addressable (£)
£8,500,000 (3-year framework estimated share — across multiple small buyers)
Win probability
45% (framework listing is near-certain if paperwork clean; revenue depends on discoverability)
Stage
Stage 2 — Qualify
Blocker
G-Cloud 14 next application window + ISO 27001 roadmap evidence
Opportunity 7: NHS England — Sovereign AI for Clinical Decision Support
Buyer
NHS England (via G-Cloud 14 or NHS Framework)
Framework
NHS AI Deployment Platform or G-Cloud 14
Requirement
Sovereign AI clinical decision support — UK-sovereign inference + DTAC compliance + BFT governance for high-risk AI (EU AI Act high-risk classification)
Addressable (£)
£5,200,000 (3-year managed service across 3 ICS regions)
Win probability
12% (DTAC compliance is a heavy lift; strong sovereign positioning but NHS sales cycle is 12-18 months)
Note: Addressable total (£24.7M) is less than the headline £38.2M because the £13.5M delta is reserved for opportunistic pursuits that will emerge once DSP registration and SC clearance are complete. Weighted pipeline uses calibrated win probabilities per opportunity.
4 · Win-Probability Calibration Methodology
Win probabilities are calibrated against 5 named factors, each scored 0-10:
Sovereign-fit (weight 25%) — Does DEFONEOS's sovereign positioning create a genuine competitive moat for this buyer?
Capability match (weight 20%) — Can the 30-MCP estate + BFT governance + SIGIL audit chain cover ≥80% of the stated requirement out-of-box?
Relationship strength (weight 20%) — Do we have a warm contact, prior engagement, or a referral path?
Compliance readiness (weight 20%) — Are all required certifications (Cyber Essentials, SC, ISO 27001) either held or in-flight?
Competitive landscape (weight 15%) — How many credible competitors exist? Is the buyer pre-disposed to a prime (BAE, QinetiQ, Leonardo)?
Calibrated probability = (sovereign-fit × 0.25 + capability × 0.20 + relationship × 0.20 + compliance × 0.20 + competitive × 0.15) × 0.1, floored at 5%, capped at 75% (no opportunity is above 75% until a bid is submitted).
5 · Owner-Gate Dependencies
The single highest-leverage action Nick can take: Register on the Defence Sourcing Portal (30 min). This unblocks Opportunities 1, 5, and partially 4, 6, 9 — representing £18,600,000 addressable (75% of the pipeline).